Background and Rationale for Liquid Biopsy Precision medicine endeavors to assess the unique characteristics of each patient’s disease, often relying on next-generation sequencing (NGS) of tumor tissue obtained through conventional biopsy procedures. However, traditional tumor tissue sampling presents significant challenges, particularly for patients with metastatic cancer, as repeated biopsies are often impractical and may fail to capture the dynamic evolution or intra-tumor genetic heterogeneity of the disease over time. This highlights a clear need for novel, non-invasive biomarkers that can help predict prognosis and monitor treatment response, thereby guiding more personalized therapeutic strategies.
Liquid biopsy, specifically the genomic analysis of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) extracted from plasma, has emerged as a promising non-invasive method for both prognostication and evaluating treatment response. cfDNA consists of short DNA fragments originating from both normal and tumor cells, including ctDNA (also referred to as tumor fraction). Unlike a single tumor tissue biopsy, ctDNA provides a more accurate representation of the comprehensive mutational profile and heterogeneity across various lesions within an individual patient. The ability to repeatedly analyze ctDNA over time allows for dynamic monitoring of disease progression and treatment response, offering valuable insights into prognostic differences even among patients at the same tumor stage.
While short-read sequencing NGS panel assays are commonly used for detecting single nucleotide variations (SNVs) or small insertions/deletions (indels) with high sequencing depth (5000X to 12000X), whole-genome sequencing (WGS), with its lower depth but broader genomic coverage, is preferred for assessing large structural variations, inferring Copy Number Alterations (CNAs), or calculating the ctDNA fraction. CNAs, defined as amplifications or deletions of chromosomal regions, are a crucial subset of somatic mutations that contribute to carcinogenesis by causing overexpression of oncogenes or loss of tumor suppressor genes (TSGs). Despite the potential of WGS, high sequencing expenses associated with depths like 5x have limited its routine clinical application. Even low-pass WGS (LP-WGS) with 1.5x coverage has remained cost-prohibitive.
To overcome these cost barriers, ultra-low-pass whole-genome sequencing (ULP-WGS), with coverage typically ≤0.5x, has emerged as a more cost-effective and promising alternative for estimating ctDNA amount and detecting CNAs. This approach is significantly more affordable for routine clinical practice compared to higher coverage WGS on platforms like Nextseq, Novaseq, and MGI-400. However, detecting ctDNA using ULP-WGS can be challenging in patients with minimal tumor burden due to often-low tumor fractions against a high background of non-tumoral cfDNA.
Methods of the Study This systematic review and meta-analysis involved a comprehensive literature search in PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus for English-language studies published between January 2014 and January 2024, supplemented by a manual review of reference lists. Included studies were prospective or retrospective, focusing on patients with solid tumors, comparing overall survival (OS) and/or progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes between groups with positive and negative ctDNA. A positive ctDNA status was defined as a tumor fraction ≥10%. This threshold was based on ichorCNA’s validated performance, which demonstrated 91% sensitivity for tumor detection and 100% specificity for confirming tumor absence at this threshold. Only studies using ULP-WGS of plasma cfDNA with an average genome-wide fold coverage of ≤0.5x were eligible.
Data extracted included study characteristics, cfDNA input, sequencing parameters (median depth, ctDNA detection rate), prevalent CNAs, and survival outcomes (P-values and Hazard Ratios). The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). For the meta-analysis, patient-level survival data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier plots. A Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty was used for the primary analysis to account for between-study heterogeneity. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using the Cochrane Q test and the I2 statistic.
Key Results The meta-analysis included six studies for overall survival (OS), encompassing 620 patients (367 negative ctDNA, 253 positive ctDNA), and five studies for progression-free survival (PFS), involving 349 patients (212 negative ctDNA, 137 positive ctDNA). The solid tumors studied included metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, localized osteosarcoma, metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.
- Feasibility of ULP-WGS: ULP-WGS was performed on plasma samples with a median coverage of 0.3X (range: 0.2–0.5X) and cfDNA inputs ranging from 1 to 50 ng. The detection rate of ctDNA varied from 28% to 61% across the included studies.
- Copy Number Alteration Analysis: ULP-WGS of plasma cfDNA effectively facilitated the analysis of CNAs.
- Most frequently reported gains: 3q, 8q, 1q, 7q, and 5p.
- Most frequently reported losses: 13q, 8p, 4q, 13q, 16q, and 5q.
- Specific CNAs showed prognostic associations: in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, loss of 5q and 16q was linked to shorter OS. In metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, loss of 8p and gain of 9q were associated with worse OS. For localized osteosarcoma, a gain in 8q showed a trend towards worse OS.
- Survival Analysis:
- Overall Survival (OS): The analysis revealed that having a positive ctDNA status was significantly associated with an increased risk of death (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 2.60; 95% CI, 2.01–3.36; P < 0.0001) compared to having a negative ctDNA. The positive ctDNA group also demonstrated a significant decrease of 6.3 months in restricted median survival time (RMST) at 3 years (P < 0.001), which translates to a 22.9% relative decrease in life expectancy.
- Progression-Free Survival (PFS): A positive ctDNA status was significantly associated with an increased risk of progression (HR = 2.28; 95% CI, 1.71–3.05; P < 0.0001). The positive ctDNA group had a 3.7 months lower RMST at 3 years (P < 0.019), corresponding to a 25.2% relative decrease in progression-free expectancy.
- Sensitivity Analysis: When studies focusing on early-stage patients were excluded, the presence of ctDNA in advanced stages showed an even more pronounced correlation with an elevated hazard of death and progression, along with a wider gap in survival rates.
Discussion and Limitations This study is reported as the first meta-analysis to comprehensively investigate the prognostic role of ctDNA detected by ULP-WGS in patients with various solid tumors. The results consistently demonstrate that patients with a positive ctDNA status at baseline have a significantly worse prognosis in terms of both PFS and OS. This suggests that detectable ctDNA could serve as a non-invasive biomarker of worse prognosis in patients with advanced stages of cancer, enabling more accurate risk stratification, treatment planning, and follow-up.
The advantages of ULP-WGS include its easy processing, low cost, and rapid readout. Its primary utility lies not in detecting specific somatic variants (which are covered by high-depth targeted NGS panels) but in identifying copy number gains or losses through genomic inference and precisely calculating the tumor fraction. This approach offers a unique capacity to gather comprehensive somatic information from a circulating analyte, which can be repeatedly measured throughout a patient’s treatment journey, and may also capture tumor heterogeneity.
However, the study acknowledges several limitations of ULP-WGS. It has lower sensitivity and necessitates a relatively high tumor burden for effective ctDNA and CNA detection, often showing poor performance in patients with minimal tumor burden, such as those with localized prostate cancer or early hepatocellular carcinoma. This lower sensitivity may be attributed to reduced necrosis and vascularization in localized small tumors. More sensitive methods, like droplet digital PCR or deep-targeted sequencing for SNVs, might be required for earlier stages or minimal residual disease detection. Other limitations include disparities in pre-analytical conditions and technical sequencing aspects across included studies, which could affect comparability. The diverse efficacy of treatments received in different clinical scenarios also poses a limitation. Furthermore, not all studies included survival analyses incorporating CNAs, and the need for sequential analysis for treatment response evaluation remains important.
Conclusion In summary, this meta-analysis indicates that the detection of ctDNA using ULP-WGS of plasma cfDNA warrants further exploration as a prognostic marker for advanced-stage patients with various cancer types. Despite certain limitations, the findings underscore its potential as a valuable tool for future clinical applications in cancer management.